Home / Business Analytics and Modeling

Bank Marketing Dataset

Bank Marketing Dataset

In this article, we work on a dataset available from the UCI Machine Learning Repository. The data is related to direct marketing campaigns (phone calls) of a Portuguese banking institution. The classification goal is to predict if the client will subscribe to a term deposit (variable y).

This dataset is based on the Bank Marketing dataset from the UC Irvine Machine Learning Repository. The data is enriched by the addition of five new social and economic features/attributes (national wide indicators from a ~10M population country), published by the Banco de Portugal and publicly available at bportugal.pt/estatisticasweb. This dataset is almost identical to the one used in [Moro et al., 2014] (it does not include all attributes due to privacy concerns).

Dataset Information:

The data is related to the direct marketing campaigns of a Portuguese banking institution. The marketing campaigns were based on phone calls. Often, more than one contact to the same client was required, in order to access if the product (bank term deposit) would be ('yes') or not ('no') subscribed.

Train and Test Sets

First, consider the data distribution for Term Deposit Subscription.

StratifiedKFold is a variation of k-fold which returns stratified folds: each set contains approximately the same percentage of samples of each target class as the complete set.

Therefore, we have divided the dataset into train and test set using stratification that preserves the distribution of classes in train and test sets.

Modeling: PyTorch Multi-layer Perceptron (MLP) for Binary classification

A multi-layer perceptron (MLP) is a class of feedforward artificial neural network (ANN). The algorithm at each iteration uses the Cross-Entropy Loss to measure the loss, and then the gradient and the model update is calculated. At the end of this iterative process, we would reach a better level of agreement between test and predicted sets since the error would be lower from that of the first step.

Setting up Tensor Arrays

Modeling

Fitting the model

Model Performance

Confusion Matrix

The confusion matrix allows for visualization of the performance of an algorithm. Note that due to the size of data, here we don't provide a Cross-validation evaluation. In general, this type of evaluation is preferred.

Some of the metrics that we use here to mesure the accuracy: \begin{align} \text{Confusion Matrix} = \begin{bmatrix}T_p & F_p\\ F_n & T_n\end{bmatrix}. \end{align}

where $T_p$, $T_n$, $F_p$, and $F_n$ represent true positive, true negative, false positive, and false negative, respectively.

\begin{align} \text{Precision} &= \frac{T_{p}}{T_{p} + F_{p}},\\ \text{Recall} &= \frac{T_{p}}{T_{p} + F_{n}},\\ \text{F1} &= \frac{2 \times \text{Precision} \times \text{Recall}}{\text{Precision} + \text{Recall}}\\ \text{Balanced-Accuracy (bACC)} &= \frac{1}{2}\left( \frac{T_{p}}{T_{p} + F_{n}} + \frac{T_{n}}{T_{n} + F_{p}}\right ) \end{align}

The accuracy can be a misleading metric for imbalanced data sets. In these cases, a balanced accuracy (bACC) [6] is recommended that normalizes true positive and true negative predictions by the number of positive and negative samples, respectively, and divides their sum by two.

Refrences

  1. S. Moro, P. Cortez and P. Rita. A Data-Driven Approach to Predict the Success of Bank Telemarketing. Decision Support Systems, Elsevier, 62:22-31, June 2014

  2. S. Moro, R. Laureano and P. Cortez. Using Data Mining for Bank Direct Marketing: An Application of the CRISP-DM Methodology. In P. Novais et al. (Eds.), Proceedings of the European Simulation and Modelling Conference - ESM'2011, pp. 117-121, Guimaraes, Portugal, October, 2011. EUROSIS. [bank.zip]

  3. Scikit-learn Precision-Recall

  4. Mower, Jeffrey P. "PREP-Mt: predictive RNA editor for plant mitochondrial genes." BMC bioinformatics 6.1 (2005): 1-15.

  5. Precision and recall wikipedia page

  6. Cross-validation: evaluating estimator performance